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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-07-21T03:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-07-21T03:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/40172/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely related to an eruption and dimming centered near S28E05 starting around 2025-07-21T03:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Post eruptive arcades begin to form around 2025-07-21T04:30Z. The arrival of this CME was not clearly seen at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-07-25T04:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 5.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50722
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 22 Jul 2025, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Jul 2025  10CM FLUX: 140 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Jul 2025  10CM FLUX: 137 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Jul 2025  10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 007

Coronal mass ejections: ...A CME (SIDC CME 529), was observed in LASCO/C2 and C3 
coronagraph imagery starting from around 04:00 UTC on July 21, lifting off the
southeast limb. The CME is most likely associated with a filament eruption
observed in AIA 304 data around 02:45 UTC on July 21, near the central
meridian in mid-latitude south hemisphere. The CME is expected to miss
Earth, with a slight chance for a glancing blow starting from July 25. No
other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery.

Lead Time: 65.40 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2025-07-22T11:06Z

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